2011 APRIL MLS® SALES MIRROR 2009 - Flood Situation and Effort Impact Sales

 It is no coincidence the 2011 flood in Manitoba affected WinnipegREALTORS® MLS® market as listings were down 15% from April 2010 and much closer to 2009 where we had some major flood issues to deal with like this year. MLS® sales are virtually identical to 2009 and conversions of listings to sales are off in the same way compared to non-flood springs. 

Listings were down significantly in some of the rural municipalities such as St. Clement and St. Andrews and diminished in Winnipeg MLS® areas along the Red River (e.g. St. Vital, Frasers Grove, North End). Even Algonquin Park with Bunns Creek running through it experienced a noticeable new listings decline.

No better example of how April MLS® sales can be impacted by flooding is in 1997 where MLS® sales were only 900 and then bounced back to 1,126 in 1998 and 1,162 in 1999.

As evident from softer sales performances in other major markets across the country, a federal election preoccupying many Canadian’s attention and concerns during the month of April may also have played a factor in reducing market activity.

April MLS® unit sales decreased 13% (1,148/1,317) while dollar volume dropped back 11% ($268.8 million/$303.1 million) in comparison to the same month last year. Year-to-date sales are up 1% (3,681/3,626) while dollar volume has risen 5% ($839.3 million/$797.0 million) in comparison to the same period last year. MLS® listings entered on the MLS® system this year are down 3% (5,870/6,053).

“This April is an atypical spring market month so not withstanding the drop off in sales and listings activity, we think there will be better results in May based on our strong first quarter performance and good market fundamentals remaining in place as we move into our busiest time of year,” said Ralph Fyfe, president of WinnipegREALTORS®. “More evidence of how the flood was a factor this month is the marked difference in residential-detached and condominium sales activity. The latter was up 3% while single family homes decreased 15%.”

“As one of those homeowners along the Red River in St. Vital, I understand first hand how Manitobans put priority over saving their home compared to listing or buying one,” added Fyfe. “I commend the provincial government and the City of Winnipeg for being better prepared than they ever have to help us deal effectively with necessary flood mitigating measures.”

For residential-detached sales in April, the most active price range was from $200,000 to $249,999 at 23% of total sales. The next busiest price range was from $250,000 tom $299,999 at 17%. Conversely, the under $99,999 price range had only 5% of total sales this month and in March.

Average days on market for residential-detached sales was 26 days, 2 days slower than last month and 5 days off the pace set in April 2010.  Average days on market for condominium sales was 34 days, 1 day faster than last month and 11 days slower than April 2010.

Condominium sales were most prevalent in the $150,000 to $199,999 price range with 38% of total sales. Another 20% came from the $100,000 to $149,999 price range.

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Highest Monthly Average Home Price at $252,000

December was a month to remember with WinnipegREALTORS® recording its highest average monthly home sales price ever at $252,414. The previous high was June 2010 at $250,440. This record is not typical of a December. Historically, the highest monthly average sales price tends to be in the busier spring months. The month of the year is becoming far less significant as a determining factor of average monthly sales price and not surprisingly the prevailing tight housing market conditions is the primary cause.

A real driving factor behind the higher average sales price in December is the large influx of new immigrants in combination with historically low rental vacancy rates (currently at .8%). As a result, resale housing and converted condos become the most viable option to meet the shelter needs in the Winnipeg marketplace. 

Another December number worth highlighting is the dollar volume of over $150 million. It shattered the previous highest December dollar volume mark set in 2009 by 22%. Prior to 2009, no December dollar volume exceeded $100 million. Helping December 2010 along was another million dollar house sale in Winnipeg, bringing the year-end total to 11.

Not to be outdone, December MLS® sales of over 650 are the highest on record for this month and it is the second year in a row this month’s sales surpassed 600. Similar to December 2009 when one in three active MLS® listings sold, December 2010 outperformed 2009 due to a higher inventory. A 14% increase in new listings added to the overall supply.

December MLS® unit sales were up 5% (653/619) while dollar volume soared 22% ($153.0 million/$125.3 million) in comparison to the same month last year. 2010 MLS® sales ended up ever so slightly to less than .5% (12,236/12,182) while dollar volume rose 11% ($2.73 billion/$2.47 billion) in comparison to 2009. 17,792 listings were entered on the MLS® system in 2010; up less than 3% over 2009. Conversion of listings to sales fell below 70% in 2010; the first time it dipped below this percentage mark since 2001.

“The numbers do speak for themselves this month as homes were clearly part of consumer’s year end big ticket purchases,” said Claude Davis, outgoing president of WinnipegREALTORS®. “As a result of this record December, WinnipegREALTORS® was able to finish the year edging out 2009 in annual MLS® sales and it eclipsed $2.7 billion in dollar volume for 2010 – another annual dollar volume record.”

“2010 will go down as a year with continued price pressure thus driving up dollar volume,” said Davis.  “Sales still held their own despite affordability becoming more of an issue, especially at the lower end of the market spectrum.”

He added, “In 2010, more affordable property types such as condominium townhouses and apartments were sought after as there was an increase in condo sales activity and fewer residential-detached sales.”

There was an actual 13% drop in residential-detached sales activity from 2009 to 2010 in houses selling under $250,000. Another sharp contrast between the two years is the fact residential-detached sales under $200,000 in 2010 represented 39% of total sales whereas in 2009 the percentage was 50%. In comparison, condominium sales under $200,000 captured 59% of total condo sales.

Whether it is choices of various MLS® property types, MLS® neighbourhood areas, street location, house size and condition, they all become factors in determining what a home buyer may qualify for to purchase. Given the ebb and flow of our dynamic housing market with the factors noted above, buyers should be contacting a REALTOR® to advise them on what options best suit them.

The most active residential-detached price range in December was the $200,000 to $249,999 price range with 20% of total sales activity. This was the case for the year with this price range leading the way with 23% of total sales activity.

The average days on market for residential-detached sales in December was 33 days, 1 day off last month and 2 days quicker than December 2009. The year finished off with an average days on market of 27 days, two days quicker than 2009.

Condominium sales in December were most dominant in the $150,000 to $199,999 price range with 35% of all sales while the $200,000 to $249,999 price range was not far behind at 31%. For the year, the most active price range by far was from $150,000 to $199,999 with a market share of 33%. Trailing a distant second was the $100,000 to $149,999 with 22% of total sales.

The average days on market for condominium sales in December was 26 days, over a week faster than last month and one day slower than December 2009. For 2010, average days on market for condo sales was 30 days, a 3 day quicker turnaround than 2009.